Weak PPI Fuels Bets on Interest Rate Cut, Unresolved Tariffs Weigh on Copper Prices [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

    SMM June 13 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,672.0/mt, dipping to a low of $9,667.5/mt early in the session before climbing to a high of $9,709.5/mt. It generally exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with prices rising and falling multiple times, eventually closing at $9,690.5/mt. Open interest stood at 289,206 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,600 yuan/mt, experiencing fluctuations early in the session, climbing to a high of 78,760 yuan/mt and dipping to a low of 78,550 yuan/mt. It generally showed a fluctuating trend, with prices rising and falling repeatedly, eventually closing at 78,580 yuan/mt, down 0.13%. Trading volume reached 20,385 lots, and open interest reached 201,581 lots. On the macro front, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 7 came in at 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000 and marking a new high since the week ending October 5, 2024. The US May core PPI monthly rate came in at 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders once again fully priced in two interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year. The US dollar index declined, supporting copper prices. However, the lingering uncertainty over tariffs and trade prospects continued to weigh on copper price movements. On the fundamental side, as copper prices fell, downstream purchasing sentiment improved slightly. However, under the current backwardation structure, the market was more inclined to purchase after contract rollover, and the improvement in market trading activity was limited. Overall, with the unresolved tariff prospects between China and the US, it is expected that there will be certain upward pressure on copper prices today.